Draft StrategyAUG 18, 2026
ADP Is a Promise at Receiver and a Suggestion at Tight End
Two players can share an ADP and be nothing alike. I measured how far a draft slot actually moves, by position and by round, across eight seasons.
Jon StoneDraft Season · 2026 · 10 days to kickoffRock-solid analysis.
Rock-solid analysis.
Ice-cold calls.
The Board: ranked, tiered, and priced, with the stat line under every pick. No hedging, no hot takes, nothing to configure — just a board you can draft on. Nothing to configure.
The Board · Top 5 OverallHALF PPR
- 01Jahmyr GibbsDETRB
- 02Ja'Marr ChaseCINWR
- 03Bijan RobinsonATLRB
- 04Jonathan TaylorINDRB
- 05Christian McCaffreySFRB
Draft Board
The 2026 Board · QBQuarterbacks
| RK | Player | Age | Bye | ADP | Pts | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01OVR 20 | Josh AllenBUF | 30 | 7 | 32.8 | 396.2 | T1 |
| 02OVR 40 | Lamar JacksonBAL | 29 | 13 | 55.8 | 362.4 | T2 |
| 03OVR 49 | Drake MayeNE | 24 | 11 | 51.5 | 355.6 | T2 |
| 04OVR 56 | Joe BurrowCIN | 29 | 6 | 56.5 | 345.5 | T3 |
| 05OVR 70 | Jayden DanielsWAS | 25 | 7 | 72.4 | 330.8 | T3 |
| 06OVR 85 | Jalen HurtsPHI | 28 | 10 | 81.0 | 310.8 | T4 |
| 07OVR 92 | Caleb WilliamsCHI | 24 | 10 | 91.2 | 303.7 | T4 |
| 08OVR 98 | Justin HerbertLAC | 28 | 7 | 107.5 | 298.7 | T4 |
- 01Josh AllenQB · BUF · AGE 30 · BYE 7 · ADP 32.8396.2
- 02Lamar JacksonQB · BAL · AGE 29 · BYE 13 · ADP 55.8362.4
- 03Drake MayeQB · NE · AGE 24 · BYE 11 · ADP 51.5355.6
- 04Joe BurrowQB · CIN · AGE 29 · BYE 6 · ADP 56.5345.5
- 05Jayden DanielsQB · WAS · AGE 25 · BYE 7 · ADP 72.4330.8
- 06Jalen HurtsQB · PHI · AGE 28 · BYE 10 · ADP 81.0310.8
Film Room
Where I’m off the market
ADP #28 · BOARD #138
Josh Jacobs
GBRB2024 was the Pro Bowl year everyone remembers. In 2025 he never got back to full strength, finishing with 67 fewer carries and 400 fewer yards, and he turns 29 right after this season ends.
All Bust Risks →ADP #162 · BOARD #126
Adonai Mitchell
NYJWRHe caught 24 of 58 targets for 301 yards and both his touchdowns after landing with the Jets last year — now he gets a full season of Geno Smith instead of whoever Indy was rolling out, at a WR74 price.
All Sleepers →ADP #121 · BOARD #86
Blake Corum
LARBHe ran for 746 yards on 145 carries at 5.1 yards a pop last year in a change-of-pace role, and there's real chatter the Rams push this toward a 50/50 split — he's the best handcuff in football at a RB35 price.
All Sleepers →Latest breakdowns
Draft Strategy
What a Tight End Pick Actually Buys
I priced every tight end pick against the guy you could have had for free. Only one range of the draft came back worth the pick.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026Draft Strategy
The Workhorse Cliff Is a Myth. The Birthday Isn't.
Everyone knows a 400-touch season breaks a running back. I measured it against seventeen years of data, and the thing everyone knows isn't there. Something else is.
Jon Stone · AUG 18, 2026